Friday, November 27, 2009

Voting is a citizen's duty

Dona Gloria Leticia Pineda de Lazarus writes -and reminds us- in Diario La Prensa (click here to see article) that voting is the duty of all Honduran citizens as mandated in Article 40 of our Constitution.  It is evident that there is certain displeasure between some potential voters because they do not see that candidates present - or represent solutions to their problems. Here I agree very much with this position.

Here we must invest time and effort starting today so that in following elections candidates are elected in transparent manner, that candidates submit political platforms and proposals before primary elections, more debates between presidential candidates, push for more pluralism and political options including more independent candidates, in short, that we manage to transform the electoral and political process in Honduras. This implies  that the traditional and minority political parties will need to be transformed into modern political parties. No more clicks or dynasties, not more "baby dinosaurs" and arbitrarily appointed candidates… no more.

Everything begins with the vote next Sunday November 29th. We must send the message to present candidates that we are observing them and that we will not tolerate any deviation from their mission which is to administer the country the right way, which is in an transparent, equitable and honest manner. Each slip will be  reported, each  trick will be denounced, each wrong policy or procedure will be analyzed and criticized… this is how we improve our country.

Compatriots, if none of the candidates seem attractive to you, it is a pity really that Mr. Carlos H. Reyes decided not to participate as an independent candidate as it can be used as an excuse for "not being included", then as Mrs. Gloria Leticia Pineda de Lazarus writes, “vote blank or as a last option vote null, but vote and thus leave a footprint of your opinion.”.

Votar es un deber ciudadano

Tal como escribe, y nos recuerda, Dona Gloria Leticia Pineda de Lazarus en La Prensa de Hoy (hacer un click aqui) el votar es un deber ciudadano prescrito por el Articulo 40 de nuestra Constitución.  Es evidente que hay cierto descontento entre algunos posibles electores porque no miran que los candidatos presentan -o representan- soluciones  a sus problemas. En eso estoy muy de acuerdo.

Aqui tenemos que invertir tiempo y esfuerzo desde hoy mismo para que en el siguiente proceso los candidatos sean electos de manera transparente, que presenten plataformas políticas y propuestas de planes de gobierno antes de las elecciones primarias, que hayan mas debates entre los candidatos presidenciales, que haya mayor pluralismo y opciones politicas incluyendo mas candidatos independientes, en fin, que logremos transformar el proceso electoral y poltico en Honduras. Por supuesto esto implica que los partidos politicos tradicionales y los minoratarios se transformen en partidos politicos modernos. No mas argollas y dinastias, no mas bebesaurios y candidatos de dedo...no mas.

Pero todo esto comienza con el voto de este Domingo 29 de Noviembre. Tenemos que enviar el mensaje a los candidatos actuales que los estamos observando y que no vamos a tolerar un tan solo desvio de su mision que es la administrar el pais de manera justa, equitativa y lo mas honrada posible. Cada desliz sera denunciado, cada mandrakada sera senalada, cada desacierto sera analizado y criticado... asi es que mejoramos como pais.

Compatriotas, si no les parece ninguno de los candidatos, es una lastima de verdad que el Sr. Carlos H. Reyes decidió no participar como candidato independiente, pues como dice Dona Gloria Leticia Pineda de Lazarus, "vote en blanco o por ultimo vote nulo, pero deje huella de su opinion".

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Como alimentar Honduras y el mundo...por lo menos algunas ideas estrategicas

En una presentación que hice en la Universidad de Washington en St. Louis relacionado al impacto de la Revolución verde, el CGIAR y las biotecnologías agrícolas (ver la presentación aquí)  indiqué el progreso que la humanidad ganó  después de la Revolución Verde, y que afectó positivamente el arroz, el maíz, y la producción del trigo entre otros cultivos. Hemos estado viviendo básicamente de las inversiones en las tecnologías de la Revolución Verde, hechas durante los años 1950 y los años 1960s. La crisis alimentaria del 2007 y el 2008 demostró que  han disminuido los aumentos de la productividad en cultivos importantes debido a diversas razones (Ver varias publicaciones al respecto en el sitio del IFPRI) 

El Banco Mundial y otros donantes multilaterales (o los inversionistas mientras que se llaman hoy en día) están haciendo inversiones importantes en programas de redes de seguridad para productores pobres y para las personas que no son del sector agrícola pero que viven en zonas rurales. Estas redes de seguridad son imprescindibles para atender las necesidades de los más pobres, pero su impacto será limitado si consecuentemente los países y los donantes no desarrollan mercados agrícolas robustos en el país y comercio exterior. El desarrollo de mercados permite la entrega de productos agrícolas a los mercados. Sabemos que los mercados imperfectos son quizás una de las limitaciones más serias para el desarrollo agropecuario.

Carreteras, caminos de acceso y otras infraestructuras, herramientas para la difusión del conocimiento tales como redes del teléfono celular, estructuras para reducir las pérdidas del almacenaje y el atender los problemas institucionales tales como acceso al crédito o a la extensión son críticos para ayudar al proceso de desarrollo agropecuario. Mejorar nuestro entendimiento del sector agropecuario en sí ayudara a mejorar y afinar las políticas y las intervenciones críticas en esta materia. Aquí incluimos el examinar el nexo entre la agricultura, el género, la vulnerabilidad,la migración, y las remesas. Estas discusiones mejorarán, de hecho, cómo nos ocupamos de los problemas del sector rural, peri-urbanos y urbanos. Ciertamente, esfuerzos conducentes a concentrarnos en solucionar problemas específicos serán muy positivos en este esfuerzo. Una lectura recomendada es el libro por la carga de los hombres blancos de William Easterly: White Men's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good

Una área donde necesitamos aumentar perceptiblemente inversiones es tecnología agrícola de diversas clases. Tecnologías elegantes, eficientes, sostenibles y apropiadas. Aquí estamos hablando de la irrigación por goteo, agricultura de zero o poca labranza, manejo integrado de plagas, variedades mejoradas, materiales libres de enfermedades para cultivo, y más importante las cosechas/los animales que son más eficientes al usar entradas disponibles tales como fertilizantes y agua.  A propósito, el agua sera la limitación mas importante para la agricultura global.

Dentro de variedades mejoradas necesitamos examinar la biotecnología y las cosechas y los animales genéticamente modificados, que se pueden desarrollar para la tolerancia de la sequía o la eficacia del nitrógeno y del fósforo. Esta opción, por ejemplo, nos puede ayudar a utilizar sistemas de cero o baja labranza.

Más importante necesitamos vencer muchas construcciones mentales y algunos intereses comerciales e identificar qué trabaja y qué no lo hace. La tecnología no será la única solución a nuestros problemas, pero será parte ciertamente de la solución.

En Honduras, los personeros que trabajaban para FINTRAC (www.fintrac.com) o (www.hondurasag.org) han tenido mucho éxito en aumentar la agricultura de alto valor agregado con los pequeños productores en Honduras. Necesitamos mas de ste tipo de proyectos. No progresaremos con agricultura de subsistencia y si necesitaremos escapar de los cercos mentales y trampas físicas que nos limitan la imaginacion.

Necesitamos seguridad alimentario pero no debemos cometer los errores penosos del pasado donde esta meta se tradujo en proteccionismo y subsidios. Éste es una de las razones por las que tenemos el lío que tenemos en agricultura, especialmente con los subsidios dados a sus granjeros por los E.E.U.U. y la Unión Europea.

Finalmente, necesitamos expandir nuestro horizonte y entender la agricultura dentro del contexto no solamente de la economía nacional pero la global. Es el tiempo de ser innovador y tratar alternativas nuevas. Esto es parte del reto, donde la agricultura comenzara a adoptar y formar parte de la economía del conocimiento y la nueva bio-economia. Mas detalles en otro articulo.

A Day of Thanks for Honduras

Today the U. S. celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Although not a Honduran celebration, my family has enjoyed this tradition for a long time. Thanking God, family and friends, and those who are unknown to us but who have blessed us with their fellowship, companionship, support and just for being, is a soul building effort that yields many dividends.It is also a celebration of freedom as those Pilgrims made it to the land where they could worship freely, without oppression.

Today, we will also give thanks for our home country Honduras and for the opportunity, we have now to really defend and build democracy, freedom and sovereignty.  None of these virtues comes easy and the more we strive to reach our goals as a nation, the more it will prosper.  Reading about the American Revolutionary and Civil Wars, I found the interesting fact that there were up to 50,000 casualties during their Revolutionary Wars and up to 620,000 casualties during the Civil Wars.  We can learn from the past and avoid these massive losses, but will not end pursuing our goals as a nation.

We should not claudicate to fear and intimidation; we need to continue our fight for freedom, democracy and sovereignty in spite of the bombs and the intimations against our country. In the words of Winston Churchill when facing daunting odds of Nazi Germany conquer of Great Britain…”Never give in--never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

We do need to move on

As you can see from my last posting, I think we need to move on with our lives. After the elections on November 29 I will start tapering down my discussions related to Manuel Zelaya and his collaborators. I want to start focusing on presenting analysis of our situation and proposing/discussing ideas that can be uptaken by the new constitutional government that will take power in January of 2010.

As I have indicated before my only unconditional support is for a free, democratic and sovereign Honduras. To accomplish this vision we do need to address our multiple problems and those things I have indicated I know are limiting us as a country. Finding intelligent proposals to improve our competitiveness, productivity, and which will create opportunities for everybody in Honduras will be a major challenge. Focusing on the poorest of the poor with safety nets and food assurance and other intervention programs will indeed be part of this multi-lateral and comprehensive national approach.

How to feed world and Honduras...at least some strategic ideas

In a presentation I made at Washington University in St. Louis on the impact of the Green Revolucion, the CGIAR and agricultural biotechnologies (See presentation here) I indicated the progress gained by humanity after the Green Revolution that impacted rice, maize, and wheat production amongst other crops. We have been living basically from the aftermath of those investments in the Green Revolution technologies during the 1950s and 1960s. The food crisis of 2007 and 2008 showed that productivity gains are declining due to the different reasons (See a host of publications on this issue at IFPRI)

Major investments are being made by the World Bank and other multilateral donors(or investors as they are called nowadays) on safety-net programs for poor farmers and for non-farm persons living in rural areas. These safety nets are indispensable in addressing the needs of the most poor, but their impact will be limited if concurrently countries and donors do not develop robust agricultural markets in the country and abroad that will allow delivery of agricultural products to markets. Imperfect markets are perhaps one of the most serious limitations for agricultural development.

Building roads and other infrastructure, developing knowledge dissemination tools such as cell phone networks, addressing storage losses and addressing institutional issues such as access to credit or extension will be key in helping the agricultural development process. Understanding even better the agricultural sector itself in order to fine tune policies and interventions will be critical in this matter including understanding issues relating agriculture, gender, vulnerability, migration, and remittances will indeed improve how we deal with issues in rural, peri-urban and urban areas. Certainly, focusing efforts to solve specific problems will be a plus in this endeavor. A recommended reading is the book by William Easterly White Men's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good

One area where we need to increase significantly investments is agricultural technology of different sorts. Smart, efficient, sustainable and appropriate technologies. Here we are talking about drip irrigation, low or no till agriculture, integrated pest management, improved varieties, disease free materials for planting, and most importantly crops/animals that are more efficient in using available inputs such as fertilizers and water.  Water by the way, will be the most limiting input for agriculture globally.

Within improved varieties we do need to examine biotechnology and genetically modified crops and animals, which can be developed for drought tolerance or nitrogen and phosphorus efficiency. Additionally, this route, for example, can help use no-till and low-till production systems. Most importantly we need to break down many mental constructs and some commercial interests and figure out what works and what doesn't. Technology will not be the only solution to our poblems but will certainly be part of the solution.

In Honduras, the folks working for FINTRAC (www.fintrac.com) or (www.hondurasag.org) have had quite a bit of success in building up high-value added agriculture with small farmers in Honduras. We need to build up on this type of project. We will not progress with subsistence agriculture and need to escape that mental and physical trap.

We need food security but we should not commit the grievous errors of the past where this goal translated into protectionism and subsidies. This is one of the reasons why we have such a mess in agriculture, especially with the heavy subsidies given to their farmers by the U.S. and the European Union.

Finally, we need to broaden our horizon and understand agriculture within its national and global context. This is the time to be innovators and try new alternatives,even if they go against the current understanding of reality. This is part of the challenge, where agriculture will adopt and become part of the knowledge economy and the the bio-economy. More details on my ideas of this in another posting.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Reason #6 Why Manuel Zelaya must not return to power

Reason #6 A return will in effect declare illegal all resolutions and judicial orders to remove Zelaya loop siding the check and balance between powers

A return as President will in effect declare “illegal” all the resolutions and judicial outcomes made by the Honduran Supreme Court and the Honduran National Congress, who mandated the removal of Mr. Zelaya as President when he attempted to call a National Constitutional Assembly, which in practice declares null and void our 1982 Constitution. This will further restrict even further the governance and institutions’ ability to govern. We certainly know how much we need to evolve in this area.

We do need to enter into careful analysis and discussions after the commotion is over and we have a new government on how Zelaya’s removal process was handled. Zelaya's exile was without doubt unconstitutional as our Constitution does not allow the exile of Honduran citizens. The rationale according to the military legal counsel's public interviews a couple of days after Zelaya's removal, was the "doctrine of necessity" as the military thought that Zelaya's imprisonment would cause a bloodbath.This seems like a feasible scenario, especially after Zelaya's June 27 violent invasion of the Air Force base in Tegucigalpa to rescue the confiscated ballots and boxes for the "cuarta urna" by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, shipped by the way from Venezuela. The military legal counsel also indicated they were prepared to face legal actions as a consequence of this decision.

A serious analysis of what happened can lead to robust proposals on how to modify the Constitution (if needed) to avoid the political crisis we had with Zelaya. This, by the way, is one more of the fallacies perpetuated by many people. The Honduran constitution can be changed and has been changed over time. The exception of course are those 7 articles considered unmovable of which the prohibition of re-election is perhaps the only one relevant to Zelaya. Please see the chronology of all the changes made at a site from Georgetown University.

Certainly, the analysis process needs to be part of the Guaymuras-Tegucigalpa pact, which contemplates a Truth Commission. We probably need to devise the specific policies and laws that can handle the removal of a president once she/he starts doing illegal acts against the Republic. Something similar to the impeachment process in the U.S.

Monday, November 23, 2009

El cuarto del papel aluminio...

Para que vean que no exagero con lo del papel aluminio en el cuartel de operaciones de Zelaya en la Embajada del Brazil en Tegucigalpa.....?Será para aislar el cuarto y conservar el aire acondicionado???


Del Blogicito de la Gringa - "Dejenme contar las formas..."

La Gringa en su blog explica articulo por articulo presionar aqui para ver el articulo, como el benemérito Sr. Zelaya y sus seguidores han violado todos los términos del Acuerdo Guaymuras-Tegucigalpa.  No solamente los viola en termino del espiritu del acuerdo pero en terminos de los componentes del mismo.

Impresionante si como Zelaya consistentemente promete y firma cosas,y despues se retracta de lo que ha hecho. Mas aun, cuando comienza a argumentar posiciones, basado en criticas a sus propias acciones. Lean el articulo para que vean de que estoy hablando.

De paso, es interesante leer el articulo del Sr. Cosenza en Proceso Digital donde señala las inconsistencias y contradicciones de Zelaya. El Sr. Cosenza termina incentivando a toda la población hondureña al voto el próximo 29 de Noviembre. No podemos mas que apoyar esta iniciativa.

On a serious note...on the current state of mental health of Mr. Zelaya

Back to serious things after my last "irreverent" note...

A couple of Honduran psychiatrists are already raising the issue of the current state of mental health of Zelaya after spending two months isolated in the Brazilian Embassy. Dr. Javier Ucles indicates that "Removed President Manuel Zelaya would be suffering depresion and anxiety symptoms after spending almost 60 days in the Brazilian Embassy, according to the analysis made by the experts in human behavior" Moreover these experts indicate that "Mr. Zelaya after regaining his freedom may suffer a mental descompensation"

This is indeed something to worry about, as there are some groups in Honduras that still want his back as President. The main question then would be: Will Zelaya be fit to be President? This of course apart from all the legal and ethical questions and formal accusations he will face if he returns.