Congress say no to the amnesty and the ALBA treaty....at least for now

Honduras Congress has declined discussing further any amnesty for the actors involved with the events leading to and during June 28 (La Prensa (click here for article). Congress has ratified the decree that will formally request the withdrawal of Honduras from the ALBA treaty (La Prensa - Click here for article) . The decree was approved by overwhelming majority, just the usual five suspects from the UD party and one person from the PINU party voted against this decree.

I have been opposed to the ALBA treaty since Honduras started thinking about joining the treaty. I am still opposed to this treaty because of the way it was passed through Congress - little discussion about benefits and costs from the treaty- and because it put us in a position where we had to surrender our independent opinion and positions with regard to international issues. In essence ALBA is not solely a trade or cooperation agreement, rather includes a political component which seems to impose quite a cost to the country without much benefits.

Well, if we think about this issue a bit, we were financing short term expenditures (on fuel) with long term debt...that is not a wise fiancial or economic decision. If we add the 100 tractors, who by the way are crappy tractors, believe me I'm an agronomist, which basically came with barely any implements that would make them usable, then we in the end did not get what we bargained for... But this is a topic for longer post...

Impunity must be erradicated from our country Honduras

The first step is to disallowe the current amnesty decree being discussed in the Honduras because it is too broad and will likely provide a cover for common crimes allegedly committed by Mr. Zelaya and his Cabinet. As written in the editorial of Diario La Prensa (click here to see article) in my free translation "Hondurans are waiting for impunity not to persist in the country as the struggle for more transparency and accountability would not have made any sense if decrees are approved that instead of strengthening democracy, weaken it".

Mr. Gaspar Vallecillo in a much stronger and to the point article in Diario El Heraldo (click here to see article) has the firm opinion is that we should not lower our heads in submission to international pressure trying to force us to make Micheletti resign from his post before his Constitutional time or grant an amnesty to anybody. Mr. Gaspar Vallecillo concludes his article by making the following statement: "if we live in rights based state or nation, lets respect it, so that we are respected by everybody else."

I cannot but agree with La Prensa and Mr. Vallecillo on these positions. Respecting the rule of the law starts somewhere. We have a great start with the Constitutional removal of a person who tried to destroy the Republic, now let's follow up this example by continuing enforcing the law. When this principle has been firmly established, then we talk about reunification and country building plans....

Article on "Diaspora, remittances and immigration" posted in La Gringa's Blogicito

And my article on the "Diaspora, remittances and immigration" has been posted in La Gringas Blogicito. Thanks LG for the honor!!!.

Just say no to an un-restricted amnesty and yes to the Truth Commission and restricted amnesty

As the Honduran Congress starts its deliberations of a potential amnesty law project for the people involved with all the events leading to June 28 2009, let us raise our voice and unequivocally say NO to a an un-restricted amnesty. Reports from different newspapers seem to indicate that Congress is discussing three types of crimes that may be covered under the amnesty law project including political (or constitutional), connected and common crimes.

The definition of political and common seem to be apparent, yet the definition of connected crimes can be made so broad that an amnesty law project could in principle cover all crimes committed during the upheaval leading to June 28 2009.

The newspaper  La Prensa (click here to view article) reports the opinion of known penalist lawyer Dagoberto Mejia Pineda, that Mr. Zelaya has been accused of 1) crimes against our government structure, 2) treason, 3) falsification of public documents, 4) abuse of authority,  5) fraud while declaring emergency decrees and making illegal purchases and withdrawing money for publicity for the "Cuarta Urna", illegal implementation of position functions not described in the Presidency's job description.

Mr. Mejia Pineda in fact indicates that of the crimes charged by the Attorney General of Honduras to Mr. Zelaya, all of them may be considered political or connected to the political crimes, and thus with a generalized amnesty Mr. Zelaya will just be absolved of all the crimes he committed during his government. If you want to see a green light for corruption in years to come this is it...a full strike to governance and respect of the law.

What we need to do is to push for the Truth Commission to be implemented based on the San Jose/Tegucigalpa/Guaymuras pact/accord but force all the actors to go to public hearing and confess their crimes as a pre-condition of receiving a restricted amnesty. The restricted amnesty will cover only political crimes. Forget about this nonsense of connected crimes being covered under the amnesty. Much less common crimes. Those should never be forgotten nor forgiven unless those who committed these crimes pay for what they did, stating with the Truth Commission process. If we do not do this, in effect we are saying that we want things to remain the same as before Zelaya. There is a lot of scope for unification and building a country together, but let us not kid ourselves, this process should be based on a clean slate, one that builds upon accepting that we have committed crimes of action or omission. Then, and only then, we move on.

Interim President Micheletti must not resign before January 27

If Interim President Micheletti resigns from office due to international pressure before January 27, he will be accepting that all the events surrounding the removal of Mr. Manuel Zelaya were indeed wrong and thus Zelaya's removal would have been unjustified. The exception is, of course, Zelaya's exile to Costa Rica, which was an illegal act and which the Attorney General is currently initiating the process to determine who is directly responsible and who will be charged for such act.

Micheletti's resignation before his appointed time would indeed contradict the opinions given by the Honduran Supreme Court, Honduran Congress, Attorney General of Honduras, who unequivocally indicated that Zelaya's removal was justified and legal. So, Mr. President Micheletti, hang in there and wait until January 27 to hand the Presidential band to the Head of Honduras Congress, Mr. Saavedra, who then in turn will hand it in to the our democratically elected new President, Mr. Porfirio Lobo Sosa as prescribed by our laws.

So, Mr. Insulza, Mr. Kelly, Mr Chavez, Mr. Castro, Mr. Ortega, Mr. Correa, Mr. Morales, and anybody else who is pushing for President Micheletti's resignation, from the the bottom of our lungs we scream "Stay away from our business, we have decided to move on. No more interventions in our affairs." I am being very polite as I have not written what you could do with your opinions....

My apologies / Mis disculpas

Dear Readers,


This posting is to apologize for not keeping up with my blog. I had several urgent personal and work related issues which precluded me from actually posting comments on my blog. During this time I have re-evaluated my commitment to you, my faithful readers, and my family/work and have decided to post on Monday, Wednesday and Fridays only, although if there is anything pressing or important I may post smaller articles on those alternate days, mostly to reflect and showcase other people's opinions regarding my beloved Honduras.

Once again my apologies for this gap in my writing.

Yours truly,

José Falck Zepeda


Estimados Lectores,

Esta nota es para disculparme por no haber publicado mis artículos en este blog desde hace un buen rato. He tenido que enfrentar asuntos personales y de trabajo urgentes que me han impedido publicar comentarios en mi blog. Durante este tiempo he re-evaluado my compromiso con ustedes, mis fieles lectores, y con my familia/trabajo y he decidido publicar solamente los Lunes, Miercoles y Viernes, aunque si hay algun asunto urgente y/o importante podré publicar articulos mas pequeños en los dias alternos, mas que todo para reflejar y apuntar las opiniones de otras personas acerca de mi amada Honduras.

Una vez mas mis disculpas.

Atentamente,

José Falck-Zepeda

Invictus...un poema

Invictus un poema escrito por el poeta ingles Wiliam Ernst Henley y que sirvio de inspiracion a Nelson Mandela durante su estadia forzada en las prisiones del regimen Afrikaaner and la Republica de Sudafrica.

Este poema se lo dedico a todos aquellos hondurenos que aman la libertad, democracia, indepencia y justicia.



INVICTUS

Out of the night that covers me,
Black as the Pit from pole to pole,
I thank whatever gods may be
For my unconquerable soul.

In the fell clutch of circumstance
I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance
My head is bloody, but unbowed.

Beyond this place of wrath and tears
Looms but the Horror of the shade,
And yet the menace of the years
Finds, and shall find, me unafraid.

It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll.
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.

Killers of growth

We can all agree that growth is necessary, but not sufficient, for a country to develop. How growth will happen, is a long studied subject by academia, donor agencies, think tanks, and multi-lateral institutions. All of these actors have failed miserably in the quest for growth. In fact, we may even argue that the more external interventions a country has had in the past, without a basic internalization of the deep structural changes needed, the more likely the country will fail in is quest for growth and development.

Lets first start with the easy part, a partial list of things that kill growth. These have been well documented in the literature. The hard part is taking these "killers of growth" and coming up with solutions that fit into a coherent and realizable plan and action. Let me post however, a sobering question, actually made by Easterly, "Are we planners or searchers (of solutions)." One has to decide which choice one adopts...

1) Corruption
2) (Bad) government and poor provision of basic services such as health, education, food, place to live, utilities, and communication services
3) Mismanagement and incompetence
4) Lack or mis-understanding of the importance of technology. We have significant "technological gaps" that desperately need closing.
5) Land tenure and private property ownership. One can convincingly argue that in Honduras we have a quasi-feudal land tenure system.
6) Imperfect markets. We have "privatized" public enterprises, converting them from a state monopoly to a private monopoly or duopoly. Not much change I might add...
7) Mis-understood and mis-guided politics and politicos
8) Mis-guided aid and investment. Is it benefiting Honduras the process where we spent significant resources to become a HIPC, gained conditioned debt-forgiveness and the approval of poverty reduction strategy funds? Has this process of debt forgiveness worked elsewhere? Under what conditions?
9) Unclear or lacking energy, food security, science and technology, economic, agricultural, environmental policies.
11) Mis-guided decentralization.
12) Having 24/7/365 political rent-seeking and thus a permanent stream of candidacies for president and for other positions of power

Mas de nuestro futuro como pais...

Todo esfuerzo futuro como país, parte del anhelo y deseo de todo hondureno, de tener una patria mejor y un entorno personal, familiar y profesional conducente a la excelencia y a la justicia para todos. Aquí comienza la batalla por la nueva Honduras, donde sus hijas e hijos digan "yo le apuesto al cambio y ese cambio comienza ahorita mismo".


 Este proceso se traduce en que a la persona que escogimos como líder del país , el Sr. Pepe Lobo, ahora le exigiremos mas de lo que le habíamos exigido a nadie antes. Queremos planes específicos para salir adelante y prosperar. No me canso de repetir los ejemplos de Singapur y Corea del Sur, que hace 60 años estaban casi en igualdad de condiciones de las que estamos ahorita mismo. Se puede compatriotas, se puede queriendo hacer las cosas. No va  a ser fácil, es mas, nuestra generación no va a ver mucho cambio y si mucho sacrificio, nuestros nietos verán la diferencia si nosotros damos ese primer paso.

Concuerdo totalmente con las observaciones del Sr. Gaspar Vallecillo en el Heraldo de hoy http://www.elheraldo.hn/Ediciones/2009/12/08/Opinion/Lecciones-de-las-eleccionescuando le escribe al Sr. Pepe Lobo "Usted ganó el deber de ser nuestro gobernante pero no el derecho de ingobernarnos. Ganó para servirle al pueblo necesitado de todo y no servirse de todo lo necesitado por el pueblo." Este es un mensaje que no debemos vacilar en repetir una y otra vez, no solo al presidente electo,pero a todos los que vienen después. De paso, el no respetar esta máxima del Sr. Vallecillo fue lo desvirtuó al Sr. Zelaya y que muchos miembros de la Resistencia no quieren entender. 

El Sr. Carlos Espinal G. propuso una serie de metas  en el diario Proceso Digital http://www.proceso.hn/zona/0039_carlos.htm. Es evidente que estas son metas cuantitativas que habría que discutirlas mas que todo para ver como se pueden hacer realidad en un futuro muy próximo.


Reproduzco las 12 metas del Sr. Espinal para su fácil discusion.

1. Rediseñar y consolidad una verdadera democracia representativa. (Nuestro Presidente y representantes tiene que ser responsable de sus actos ante sus electores, no ante grupos de poder. Con la experiencia del año 2009, es obvio que nuestras leyes requieren introducir estos mecanismos de control y supervisión para que nadie sienta que está por encima de la ley. El modelo Francés de Gobierno con respecto al Poder Ejecutivo, puede ser una forma de lograr estos objetivos)

2. Garantizar un sistema de justicia que sea justo y oportuno,

3. Asegurarse de erradicar la inseguridad y la existencia de grupos irregulares en la sociedad,

4. Lograr que el Producto Interno Bruto del país, crezca por encima del 8% en forma anual y sostenida durante los próximos 30 años,

5. Lograr la total independencia del Banco Central y la estabilidad de precios a largo plazo, con niveles de inflación anual durante este período menores al 4%,

6. Lograr reducir el índice de desigualdad del ingreso (Coeficiente Gini) del 53.8% al 42%,

7. Crear una cultura emprendedora y asegurarse que el total de la población tenga acceso al mercado de capitales y a un régimen estable de propiedad,

8. Reestructurar el aparato del Gobierno de manera que el Gobierno se concentre en lo vital, no en la provisión ineficiente de servicios que estarían en mejores manos en un sector privado dinámico, competitivo y democrático en su régimen de propiedad y en el que toda la sociedad tenga acceso, no solo un par de grupos étnicos,

9. Usar el esquema cooperativo como una forma efectiva de erradicar la pobreza extrema y los mecanismos de solidaridad y de acumulación de riqueza que esta forma de gestión, llevada en forma honesta, es capaz de proporcionar,

10. Transformar el sistema educativo y de salud para que el Gobierno se convierta en el gran arquitecto y regulador de nuestro destino, logrando que la próxima generación el nivel de analfabetismo haya desaparecido y los niveles de cultura, capacitación y salud sean cónsonos con lo que deseamos para los mediados del siglo 21, y simultáneamente que el Gobierno deje de ser presa de grupos de presión cuyo interés parece ser sólo económico y gremial,

11. Crear una cultura de protección y de excelencia con respecto al medio ambiente, el bosque, nuestros ríos, la fauna y el tratamiento de nuestros desechos. Esta iniciativa es de las que promete mayor impacto a mediano plazo en términos de costo beneficio si las personas que la dirigen conocen de las mejores prácticas a nivel mundial,

12. Rediseñar el servicio exterior de Honduras para garantizar que su gestión obedece a los mejores intereses de toda la sociedad, no solo del Gobierno. El sector empresarial debe participar activamente en la designación de los funcionarios (excepto el Embajador) y participar en su remuneración con base a resultados (ver modelo Chileno),

First step: Diagnostic of what we will face next...

This is the first in a series of postings where I want to put on the table ideas to support Mr. Pepe Lobo's administration in a proactive way with analysis and practical suggestions. I want to express publicly that this effort does not in any way mean that I am "unconditional" supporter of Mr. Lobo and thus will turn a blind eye to what I criticized of Mr. Zelaya's administration. What I am doing here is contributing to the "moving forward" process that our nation will endure shortly. In this sense, this support would have been offered regardless of who had won legitimately the November 29th elections. We cannot afford to have Mr. Lobo fail in his government. This would certainly mean loosing the fight for freedom, liberty and democracy in our country, as we will not have the other side of the story...justice for all.

First things, first. We need to figure out what is the current situation of our country in terms of the economy, security, poverty, health, education, unemployment, laws and regulations, governance, competitiveness, debt, and ongoing/concluded government programs and policies, in order to develop a strong diagnostic of our reality. Three of the pressing issues we will face are government budgets and debt, security and the polarization of our society. These are quite important to tackle first as they provide appropriate signals to investors, donors and our own people, that government is serious about solving our problems starting with a real dialogue. In this dialogue we need to develop a roadmap for success, built on consensus and real participation. One that sets aside personal gain but at the same time guarantees that most people will be better off eventually, that is the key to success in this effort.

I will expand more on this diagnostic in future postings. Here is one done by the World Bank Data Profile
http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/ddpreports/ViewSharedReport?REPORT_ID=9147&REQUEST_TYPE=VIEWADVANCED&DIMENSIONS=100

and the country summary
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/LACEXT/HONDURASEXTN/0,,menuPK:295096~pagePK:141132~piPK:141109~theSitePK:295071,00.html#summary.


Similar data from the IADB/BID http://www.iadb.org/res/lmw_countrytables.cfm?country=Honduras