Los hondureños no somos peones de nadie...

En Hondudiario  (para ver el articulo hacer un click aqui) el comisionado nacional de los Derechos Humanos, Ramón Custodio, declaró que “los hondureños no somos peones ni de Venezuela, ni de Estados Unidos ni de ningún otro país. Le recomiendo al Presidente Lobo que tome una actitud prudente pero firme en nuestras relaciones con los demás países, especialmente aquellos que nos buscan negar el derecho a la existencia como nación después de nuestras elecciones constitucionales Noviembre 28 del 2009.

Como he escrito otras veces respetaremos a los que nos respetan, y estableceremos relaciones diplomáticas con aquellos que quieran hacerlo con nosotros. Los demás...que les vaya bien. Mientras no aprendamos a vivir independientemente del resto del mundo, no aprenderemos a vivir como una nación independiente. No podemos sacrificar nuestra dignidad como nación agachando la cabeza y buscando la ganancia a corto plazo. Los que actúen así, serán juzgados por la opinión publica y la historia.

Bloggin' from Pretoria South Africa

I am contributing to a training workshop on measuring the economic and social impact of agricultural biotechnologies (genetically modified crops /transgenic crops). There are participants from 8 countries in Southern Africa represented here. Although I would have preferred for the training to be closer to the time of the World Cup...this represents one more opportunity to contribute to improving decision making capacity in Africa. I will implement a similar event at CIAT in Colombia some time in April.

One of the issues to reflect on my experience here in South Africa is the need of us in Honduras on how technology can impact our own agricultural producers and how to maximize their benefits while reducing costs. More on this later. Other issue I wanted to gain more knowledge is how the Truth Commission worked here in South Africa. Much to learn...much to learn...

President Lobo has to draw the line now

We are at a new governance crossroad (or at a junctural point in fancy terms). We faced a similar one when Honduras was on its knees due to hurricane Mitch. At that point, and as we face now, we had the opportunity to make our country as it should be, not continue business as usual. President Lobo must not miss this opportunity, as the one we missed after hurricane Mitch, to end the cronyism, corruption, mismanagement, nepotism, and improvisation that characterized Mr. Zelaya's administration and to different degrees other administration before him.

President Lobo MUST  thus draw the line now, and make it his policy that no corruption will be tolerated from anyone, including those of its own party, the interim government and previous administrations. No  "sacred cows" will be tolerated here. Things have to change fast, otherwise we risk losing our country to chaos and anarchy. Voices are starting to claim for justice for all and for corruption prosecution such as this article In Hondudiario -click here, especially in light of the developing stories on the irregular (read corrupt) concession of the Nacaome dam  in La Prensa -click here and the apparent white collar vandalism that cleaned the "Culture Ministry" denounced by the New Culture Minister Bernard Martinez (Former presidential candidate from PINU) in el Heraldo -click here. Here I am afraid these two examples are just the tip of the iceberg.


Here it will be worthwhile understanding that any reconciliation government has to be built on the foundation of law, order, governance and complete disclosure of what happened that lead to the events of June 28 and after. These building blocks must include all actors and full public disclosure in front of the Truth Commission. I quite agree with an article on this matter written by Mr. Gaspar Vallecillo in el Heraldo - click here

If we want to see some example of how a Reconciliation and Truth Commissions may work (and its limitations) we can examine the examples of South Africa and Rwanda.

Civil Society Organizations present anti-crisis plan to President Lobo

The Economist Association of Honduras (Colegio de Economistas) presented a anti-crisis plan to President Lobo (to see article in Diario Tiempo Click Here) . The plan was developed by the Foro Social de la Deuda Externa de Honduras (FOSDEH),  Colegio de Economistas, Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana (UNITEC), Federación de Organizaciones No Gubernamentales para el Desarrollo de Honduras (FOPRIDEH). President Lobo indicated that he would fold this proposal into the national plan already published in the official government newspaper "La Gaceta". So, the lesson from this note is that at the very least Mr. Lobo is receptive to new ideas.

I knew about FOSDEH and their publications, presentations and analysis are really very good (to see FOSDEH web site click here) . This may represent another venue to open a discussion. I don't know much about FOPRIDEH (to see FOPRIDEH web site click here) but just by looking at their web site and examining vision, mission and objectives, seems an interesting potential partner for discussion. 


Anyhow, I used to have access to a discussion platform called DGROUPS supported by FAO, UNDP, UNECA, KIT, CTA, the CGIAR (the umbrella system to which my institute IFPRI belongs) and others. Let me check if this is still working,  if not we can think about other platforms.

Are we losing the the opportunity of building a new Honduras?

Columnist Juan Ramon Martinez writes in La Tribuna an article that is quite close to what I cannot escape thinking (  to view article ?El fin del Pais Posible? click here). Juan Ramon Martinez argues that by cowing to the "international community" pressures we are in essence letting go of the possibility of building our own country. By huddling together and figuring out that we are on our own, we would come up with our own solutions and build on the necessary perseverance to build a new country. Perhaps I have been reading too much about Singapore and how they made this nation building step when they became independent in 1965!!!

I can certainly understand the enormous pressures and the economic dire straits that President Porfirio Lobo is facing. That perhaps was the biggest difference with say Singapore, where they did not have much, but did not owe much as we do now. Certainly I cannot avoid feeling that we are letting go of the moral high ground we have accumulated, in spite of the negativity and condemnation displayed by some of the older Zelayistas and/or some of the members of the Resistencia.

Now I get ready for the 22-28 inches of snow that the northeastern is bringing upon the city of Washington, DC.

Practical/concrete ways to pursue for connecting ideas with actions to help Honduras

Our friend Tambopaxi has raised one of the most important questions for those of us who are away, but who want to contribute as much as possible with Honduras: How do we do this?

At this point, I have a few pointers and a few leads but am ready to hear some of your ideas. Certainly, it is in the best interest of our country, that Mr. Pepe Lobo succeeds in delivering a different administration, especially that of his predecessor Manuel Zelaya Rosales, but of all presidents before him. We need real change, and that is something that we need to strive for in the next elections and beyond.

Here are some options for participation. Some of these options may be dead, not active or not effective. Updating status is one thing I will need to find out. Obtaining a direct connection with the president himself, or as direct as possible, is always a possibility, finding out how to do this is another issue.

Foro Nacional de Convergencia (FONAC): http://www.fonac.gob.hn/index.php

Red de Desarollo Sostenible (RDS-HN): http://rds.hn/

Transformemos Honduras: http://www.transformemoshonduras.com/ES/

Project Honduras: http://www.projecthonduras.com/

Alternatively we could also go through a different route and create a brand new platform for discussion and presenting concrete proposals to Mr. Lobo. Hmmm...let me think about this....

Los de la "resistencia" son cinco gatos nomas….no

No señoras y señores, no nos equivoquemos ni hagamos aseveraciones chuscas, groseras o no apegadas a la realidad, pero pongamos todo en un plano objetivo. Si bien es cierto, la resistencia y personas afines a ciertos de los principios que (creo) promulga este grupo en Honduras, son un grupo relativamente minoritario, tampoco podemos descartarlos ni descartar los temas que traen a la mesa de discusión incluyendo los niveles obscenos de hambre,  pobreza, desigualdad, y la falta de oportunidades en nuestro país.
 
Porque nos importan estos asuntos es que debemos entender quien (Who are members of the resistencia?) y que es lo cuestiona la resistencia, que de paso coincide mucho con lo que hemos señalado en el pasado (Mis articulos en este blog incluyendo Killers of growth y Lo que odio en Honduras). Donde diferimos completamente es como resolver estos problemas que nos limitan como país.

Una vez que separamos de este movimiento las motivaciones de los que han hecho de la "resistencia" o de las organizaciones no gubernamentales o las protestas, una forma de ganarse rentablemente la vida, entonces nos queda  el descifrar que es lo que piden, sugieren y contribuyen los miembros de la verdadera "resistencia". Cuando vea documentos serios de análisis, propuestas de cambio concretas y al punto (no generalidades ni aseveraciones generales como ser "toda la constitución no sirve" o peor aun sin fundamento o apoyo) o plataformas políticas de acción, entonces podemos debatir y construir un plan conjunto. Por lo menos este dialogo puede servir para establecer pilares para la discusión publica del plan de país. De paso, lo mismo le pido a los partidos tradicionales y minoritarios. Así construye credibilidad la "resistencia".

Si la resistencia quisiera adquirir credibilidad como una fuerza política creíble en Honduras, sería recomendable que se organizara como una fuerza política tal como lo hizo el FMLN en el Salvador. Evidentemente que estamos hablando de dos grupos diferentes, el uno un movimiento guerrillero armado y el otro una revuelta de ciertos grupos organizados y personas afines. Mejor aún, que esta fuerza política participase en las elecciones del 2013 para saber con cierta certeza cuanto apoyo tienen en la población.

Definitivamente no va ser por medio de la quema de llantas, rompiendo vidrios, quemando buses o golpeando a personas que no comulgan con sus ideas. Conste, no estoy diciendo que todos las personas de las resistencia hacen esto, es mas creo son una minoría, pero justos pagan por lo pecadores, mas aun si los justos “justifican “ las acciones de los pecadores. Mientras no se distancie la resistencia de estos hechos, sencillamente tendrán que cargar con la culpa de las acciones criminales de estas personas.

Interesante notar que el Tribunal Supremo Electoral en su informe de los resultados de las elecciones del 2009 señala los siguientes resultados

Partido Nacional    1,213,634    52.8%
PINU    39,954    1.7%
Democracia Cristiana    38,399    1.7%
Partido Liberal    817,442    35.5%
Unificación Democrática    36,419    1.6%
Votos Blanco    61,130    2.7%
Votos Nulos    92,600    4.0%
       
Total    2,299,578   

Asumiendo que las personas que votaron por la UD y en blanco apoyan la resistencia, o por lo menos no simpatizan con ninguno de los candidatos, eso quiere decir que la resistencia cuenta con un 4.3% de la población en Honduras que los apoya. Pueda ser que estos números están sub-valorando el apoyo de la población hondureña a la denominada "resistencia" ya que no toma en cuenta el argumento que la población obedeció el mandato al boicot declarado por la misma. Este es un argumento válido, pero no de tanta fuerza porque la misma dirigencia de la UD se retracto al último minuto y le sugirió a sus miembros votar. Quedarían sin contar los simpatizantes del candidato independiente Carlos H. Reyes, que no participo en las elecciones en señal de protesta pidiendo el reintegro de Zelaya.

Un par de observaciones, el nivel de votación en las elecciones del 2009 fue superior en casi 100,000 votos con respecto a las elecciones del 2005. El nivel porcentual de los votos en blanco fue casi idéntico, pero el nivel de votos nulos fue mucho menor en las elecciones del 2009 (4.0%) versus un 6.7% en el 2005. Quiere decir que podemos especular el nivel de abstencionismo no fue tan grande como proclama la resistencia. Pero no es un punto que vale la pena enfatizar mucho ahora mismo.

More wisdom nuggets from Singapore

As I continue reading Mr. Lee Kuan Yew's memoirs (hey its 761 pages long without counting index) here are some more nuggets of wisdom from which we can learn a bit to develop our own approach for success in Honduras. I am quoting directly from the book which  are written in quotation marks in the text below followed by my brief comments.

 "We have one simple guiding principle for survival, that Singapore had to be more rugged, better organized and more efficient that other in the region. If we were only as good as our neighbors there was no reason for business to be based here. We had to make it possible for investors to operate succesfully and profitably in Singapore despite our lack of domestic market and natural resources"

This statement really flies in the face of the Chavez movement and other ALBA countries, a future which we valiantly defied in the end by removing Zelaya from office. We need to be better than anybody else in Latin America. That should be our goal, the key issue is how to get there...certainly education and health are part of the picture.

"If I have to choose one word to explain why Singapore succeeded, it is confidence. This was what made foreign investors site their factories and refineries here."

Note that he is not taking about charity, gifts or mana from heaven (call it ALBA, USAID, or Cooperación Española), Mr. Kuan Yew is taking about investments in the country to produce things, not survive from international charity.

 

"We chose to redistribute wealth by asset-enhancement, not by subsidies for consumption"


Here Mr. Kuan Yew points out one issue that other economists have pointed out in the past. Hernando de Soto comes to mind when he argued giving title to property as one approach to enhance asset ownership and its value...well, people took this as meaning that by granting property titles, would solve every problem in the country..that's not the whole story, certainly did not work in isolation when tried in our countries. Certainly, subsidies for consumption, such as subsidizing gasoline and diesel in Honduras or electricity, is a terrible way to promote growth and redistribute wealth as it does not discriminate granting the subsidy between the hiper rich or the hiper poor.

So, friends, more nugget to come as I go along in my reading quest here. By the way, the book is called: From Third World to First - The Singapore Story: 1965-2000 Memoirs of Lee Huan Yew."

Some Lessons from Singapore

After a brief visit to Singapore, I could not but express my wonder for such a progressive and fascinating country. Certainly, understanding what they did right is an inspiring exercise. This country's example is quite poignant if we think that Singapore declared its independence from the Malaysian Federation in 1965. Well, they were more or less let go from Malaysia for being "too troublesome" a country.

In fact, when Singapore became an independent nation, others expressed their doubt of their viability as a nation, especially as the British announced that they would withdraw their military bases and approximately 20% of the gross national product. Their per capita income in 1965 was roughly $500 per person (Honduras was $216). Now of course, the story is so different being one of the top ten countries with the highest per capita income and quality of life.

What were the principles behind their success? Reading Mr. Lee Kuan Yew (Former Singapore's Prime Minister from 1965-2000) memoirs we can distill some lessons as we start today a new chapter in our life as a democratic and free republic:

1) Unwavering respect of  law and order
2) Confidence in ourselves and our capacity
3) Understanding that we are alone and to trust only in ourselves for our destiny. No more relying on gifts, grants or international charity.
4) Reward capacity, industriousness, talent and intelligence
5) Respect and promote diversity
6) Reward and promote entrepreneurship
7) Seek social justice and equality


As I continue reading Mr. Lee Kuan Yew's memoirs, I will continue distilling more lessons....

Strongly recommend reading La Gringa's take on the Pepe deal with Zelaya Part I and 2

I strongly recommend reading La Gringa's posts on the deal signed by our President Elect Pepe Lobo granting a free passage document for Zelaya....Lots of questions very few answers I am afraid.

Part 1 and Part 2